The uncertainty analysis includes a qualitative assessment of the effect of model assumptions on the predictions as well as a quantitative evaluation of the parameter uncertainty on the predictions.
For each hydrological response variable, an ensemble of parameter combinations is selected from a large range of parameter combinations that result in an acceptable match between historically observed hydrological response variables and simulated equivalents.
This ensemble of parameter combinations is used to calculate the maximum raw change, the maximum percent change and the year of maximum change for each hydrological variable at each model node.
In the qualitative uncertainty analysis, the rationale behind the major assumptions and their effect on predictions is discussed and scored. The assumption deemed to have the largest effect on predictions is the implementation of the coal resource development pathway.
Product Finalisation date
- 18.104.22.168 Methods
- 22.214.171.124 Review of existing models
- 126.96.36.199 Model development
- 188.8.131.52.1 Spatial and temporal dimensions
- 184.108.40.206.2 Location of model nodes
- 220.127.116.11.3 Choice of seasonal scaling factors for climate trend
- 18.104.22.168.4 Representing the hydrological changes from mining
- 22.214.171.124.5 Modelling river management
- 126.96.36.199.6 Rules to simulate industry water discharge
- 188.8.131.52 Calibration
- 184.108.40.206 Uncertainty
- 220.127.116.11 Prediction
- Currency of scientific results
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this technical product