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- Developing the conceptual model of causal pathways
- 4 Outputs from conceptual modelling
4.1 Outputs for product 2.3 (conceptual modelling)
Table 4 outlines the main content to include in product 2.3 (conceptual modelling):
- Section 2.3.1 provides an overview of the high-level method, cross-referencing this submethodology and identifying deviations. Details of generally developing the conceptual model of causal pathways are presented here, but the details of methods for landscape classification, hazard analysis, etc., are included instead in the appropriate section.
- Section 2.3.2 summarises how the bioregion or subregion works, synthesising the information from product 1.1 (context statement, which covers geology, hydrogeology and surface water hydrology) and product 2.5 (water balance assessment).
- Section 2.3.3 describes the ecosystems in a bioregion or subregion in terms of landscape classes.
- Section 2.3.4 outlines the potential change that might occur in a bioregion or subregion by describing and documenting the baseline and coal resource development pathway (CRDP) that underpin the BA. A summary of the water management for coal resource developments follows.
- Section 2.3.5 concludes product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) by presenting a summary of the hazard analysis and the causal pathways, from coal resource developments through to hydrological changes, for both baseline and CRDP. See Table 5 for an example table that is recommended to be included.
Product 2.7 (receptor impact modelling) extends the causal pathways from the hydrological changes to potential risk on assets via qualitative models and conceptualisations of landscape classes and their dependency on surface water and groundwater.
In writing product 2.3 (conceptual modelling), it is important to note that more detail will sit in other products and that a key role of product 2.3 is to synthesise and summarise to preface the impact and risk analysis that follows. Ask the question: is this piece of information essential for this role? If it is then it should be in product 2.3 (conceptual modelling). If, on the other hand, it is not, then leave the detail elsewhere. For instance, while it is necessary to summarise the geology, particularly as relevant to water pathways, the details about any geological model developed for BAs should sit instead in product 2.1-2.2 (observations analysis, statistical analysis and interpolation).
Throughout product 2.3 (conceptual modelling), acknowledge knowledge gaps, uncertainties and alternative formulations that may exist. The synthesis in a conceptual model can reflect alternative hypotheses or understanding of interaction pathways if it represents uncertainty or gaps in the extent of the knowledge base. As more data or information is collected, conceptual models should be updated and refined. This will happen through the BAs where Component 2: Model-data analysis, Component 3: Impact analysis and Component 4: Risk analysis will clarify the importance of some links and dependencies in the conceptual model.
Table 4 Recommended content for product 2.3 (conceptual modelling)
Section number |
Title of section |
Main content to include in section |
---|---|---|
2.3.1 |
Methods |
Summary 2.3.1.1 Background and context 2.3.1.2 Developing causal pathways |
2.3.2 |
Summary of key system components, processes and interactions |
Summary 2.3.2.1 Scope and overview
2.3.2.2 Geology and hydrogeology
2.3.2.3 Surface water
2.3.2.4 Water balance
2.3.2.5 Gaps |
2.3.3 |
Ecosystems |
Summary 2.3.3.1 Landscape classification
2.3.3.2 Gaps |
2.3.4 |
Baseline and coal resource development pathway |
Summary 2.3.4.1 Developing the coal resource development pathway
2.3.4.2 Water management for coal resource developments
2.3.4.3 Gaps |
2.3.5 |
Conceptual model of causal pathways |
Summary 2.3.5.1 Methodology
2.3.5.2 Hazard analysis
2.3.5.3 Causal pathways
2.3.5.4 Gaps |
Table 5 Example table: all causal pathway groups arising from open-cut mines and coal seam gas operations in the Gloucester subregion
Example only; do not use for analysis. This is an early draft of a table published in Dawes et al. (2016). See Dawes et al. (2016) for full explanation and interpretation of the final results, which might vary from that shown here.
Type of coal resource development |
Causal pathway group |
Baseline coal resource development |
Coal resource development pathway |
Potentially impacted landscape class |
Open-cut mines |
Subsurface depressurisation and dewatering |
Yes |
Yes |
Intermittent – gravel/cobble streams Forested wetlands (GDE landscape group) Perennial – gravel/cobble streams |
---|---|---|---|---|
Subsurface physical flow paths |
Yes |
Yes |
||
Operational water management |
Yes |
Yes |
||
Surface water drainage |
Yes |
Yes |
||
Coal seam gas operations |
Subsurface depressurisation and dewatering |
Yes |
Intermittent – gravel/cobble streams |
|
Subsurface physical flow paths |
Yes |
|||
Operational water management |
Yes |
|||
Surface water drainage |
Yes |
4.2 Outputs for other products
Product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) and product 2.7 (receptor impact modelling) fully describe the potential causal pathways between coal resource development and possible impacts on water and water-dependent assets. Product 2.3 focuses on the causal pathways from the coal resource development to the hydrological changes (represented by the hydrological response variables), with less focus on the links through to the ecological and human-dominated systems at the surface (landscape classes). Following the outputs from the numerical modelling (product 2.6.1 (surface water numerical modelling) and product 2.6.2 (groundwater numerical modelling)) and identifying locations of potential hydrological change, product 2.7 (receptor impact modelling) considers only those potentially impacted landscape classes and creates qualitative, or signed digraph, models that describe the impacted landscape classes; the functions, processes and interactions within them; and their dependency on specific attributes of groundwater and surface water. Thus product 2.7 completes the causal pathways, from the hydrological changes to the impacts (represented by the receptor impact variables, which are linked to the landscape classes and assets).
Table 6 describes the specific role for conceptual modelling in all products and their links to product 2.3 (conceptual modelling).
Table 6 Role of conceptual modelling and links to product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) by product
Product code |
Title |
Description |
---|---|---|
1.1 |
Context statement |
The context statement summarises the geography, geology, hydrogeology, groundwater, surface water and ecology of a bioregion or subregion. Product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) provides a further and more integrated representation of the key systems, components and processes identified initially in product 1.1 (context statement). |
1.2 |
Coal and coal seam gas resource assessment |
The catalogue of identified coal and CSG resources in Section 1.2.4 provides the basis for the decision on the coal resource development pathway (CRDP) that is described in detail in product 2.3 (conceptual modelling). |
1.3 |
Description of the water-dependent asset register |
Assets feature indirectly in product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) through the landscape classification, where assets may be used to provide context for individual landscape classes. |
2.1-2.2 |
Observations analysis, statistical analysis and interpolation |
No conceptual modelling is required in this product but analysis conducted here may be important to summarise the science and provide the evidence base for conceptual models. In some cases the development of the three-dimensional geological model is reported here. |
1.5 |
Current water accounts and water quality |
The water balance is summarised qualitatively in product 2.3 (conceptual modelling), but more details are provided in product 2.5 (water balance assessment). Some conceptual representation is required for assessing the movement of water and salt between stores within key system components, and assessing the variability and changes over time. |
2.5 |
Water balance assessment |
|
2.6.1 |
Surface water numerical modelling |
The hydrological conceptual model (Section 2.6.1.3 in product 2.6.1 (surface water numerical modelling) that underpins the development of the surface water model is a key part of product 2.3 (conceptual modelling). |
2.6.2 |
Groundwater numerical modelling |
The hydrogeological conceptual model (Section 2.6.2.3 in product 2.6.2 (groundwater numerical modelling)) that underpins the development of the groundwater model development is a key part of product 2.3 (conceptual modelling). |
2.7 |
Receptor impact modelling |
Receptor impact models will be underpinned by fine-scale conceptual models that characterise, in more detail, landscape-scale conceptual models and link receptor impact variables and hydrological response variables at receptor locations. Whereas product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) describes the pathway from coal resource development through to hydrological change (represented by hydrological response variables), product 2.7 (receptor impact modelling) details the pathway from hydrological change to impacts (represented by receptor impact variables). |
3-4 |
Impact and risk analysis |
Product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) plays a critical role in framing the impact and risk analysis, by determining the hazards (through the Impact Modes and Effects Analysis), dependencies and the causal pathways that need more detailed analysis in product 3-4 (impact and risk analysis). While qualitative in nature in the conceptual model, Component 3: Impact analysis and Component 4: Risk analysis use the results from numerical hydrological modelling and the receptor impact modelling to make quantitative assessments of the potential impacts, and their severity and likelihood. At the end of product 3-4 (impact and risk analysis), the conceptual model of causal pathways is updated to reflect the modelling, impact and risk analyses. |
4.3 Bioregion- and subregion-specific considerations and workflow
While there are some differences in the nature of BAs across bioregions and subregions, product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) is a consistent product, though it is only developed where there is an agreed CRDP.
The potential causal pathways identified in product 2.3 (conceptual modelling) are extended to a detailed consideration of landscape classes that the groundwater and surface water modelling results suggest might be affected. Where receptor impact modelling is undertaken, conceptual models for these landscape classes are reported in the product 2.7 (receptor impact modelling). Where receptor impact modelling is not undertaken, these conceptual models will be described in product 3-4 (impact and risk analysis). In either case, these conceptual models will underpin some of the essential narrative around impacts and risks.

METHODOLOGY FINALISATION DATE
- 1 Background and context
- 2 Introduction to conceptual modelling in bioregional assessments
- 3 Building conceptual models in bioregional assessments
- 4 Outputs from conceptual modelling
- Appendix A Diagrams of causal pathways
- Appendix B Names and descriptions of causal pathway groups and causal pathways
- References
- Datasets
- Citation
- Acknowledgements
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this submethodology