3.2 Confidence in the assessment

There is high confidence that potential impacts due to unconventional gas resource development can be mitigated for all pathways of ‘potential concern’. However, the knowledge base is generally limited for the threshold of material change and for some cause-and-effect relationships. Confidence in the assessment will be improved as knowledge of these relationships and thresholds is established.

In the causal network, each link evaluation is based on the best available data and knowledge. However, in some cases the knowledge base may be limited for (i) the cause-and-effect relationship, (ii) the threshold of material change, or (iii) the mitigation strategies and whether they are available and effective. Each link evaluation is assigned a confidence score of ‘low’, ‘medium’ or ‘high’ (Table 3). Where the knowledge base is limited, this is reflected in the causal network as uncertainty. Where there is insufficient knowledge to support a robust threshold of material change, links are generally evaluated as material by applying the precautionary principle.


TABLE 3 Confidence assessment of links in the causal network

Are we confident that the link is possible? a

Are we confident that the link is or is not material? b

Are we confident the link can or cannot be mitigated? c

Confidence

Yes

Yes / Not applicable

Yes / Not applicable

High

Yes

Yes

No

Medium

Yes

No

Yes

Medium

No

Yes

Yes

Medium

Yes

No

No / Not applicable

Low

No

Yes

No / Not applicable

Low

No

No

Yes

Low

No

No / Not applicable

No / Not applicable

Low

a based on publication(s) with local system relevance or self-evident

b based on publication(s) with local system relevance

c based on publication(s) with local system relevance or publicly documented in approval conditions or proponent protocols

Confidence statements for each link ( Table 3 ) are combined into confidence statements for pathways ( Table 4 ). Confidence in the cause-and-effect relationship and thresholds of material change is generally low, reflecting that the knowledge base on hydrological and ecological functioning at the local scale is emerging. However, there is high confidence that regulation and management procedures can mitigate potential impacts (see mitigation strategy in Table 4 ).


TABLE 4 Number of causal pathways with high or low confidence in cause-and-effect relationship, threshold of material change and mitigation strategies

Level of concern

Cause-and-effect relationship (number of causal pathways)

Threshold of material change (number of causal pathways)

Mitigation strategy (number of causal pathways)

Level of confidence

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Very low concern

326

247

529

44

0

573

Low concern

856

242

1,098

0

0

1,098

Potential concern

247

160

401

6

0

407

Potentially high concern

0

0

0

0

0

0

Data: Geological and Bioregional Assessment Program (2021g)

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