6 Receptor impact modelling workshop (stage 5)

Given the hydrological scenarios defined in the previous stage, the predicted response for the receptor impact variables is elicited from the external experts at the receptor impact modelling workshop. The expert education and preparation process leading up to and including the receptor impact modelling workshop is detailed in Section 6.1. The elicitation procedure used at the workshop to elicit expert judgement conditional on the hydrological scenarios, which were developed in the previous stage, is detailed in Section 6.2. Incorporating additional or alternative experts would likely lead to alternative receptor impact models. The quality of a constructed receptor impact model can only be assessed by evaluating the expert assessment against empirical data. The statistical nature of the receptor impact models (Section 5.1) and scenario construction (Section 5.2) explicitly enables this empirical evaluation of expert contributions by allowing incorporation of independent empirical data through the likelihood function within a generalised linear model. This section discusses the expert preparation, elicitation structure and probability assessment that ensure the potential coherent assimilation of the contributed expert assessments with empirical data, while accommodating for expert uncertainty in the relationship between hydrological response variables and the receptor impact variable.